--- title: "Five central banks, three days: the order of this week’s meetings is the fact" canonical_url: "https://worldfirmledger.com/almanac/five-meetings-the-order-is-the-almanac-entry" publication: "World Firm Ledger" domain: "worldfirmledger.com" category: "Calendar" published_at: "2026-10-26T09:45:27.199Z" updated_at: "2026-10-27T03:43:04.138Z" author: "Wei-Lin Tan, CAIA, CFA" author_credentials: "CAIA, CFA (Singapore & Dubai International Financial Centre)" reviewed_by: "World Firm Ledger Editorial Fact-Checking Board" fact_check_passed: true tags: ["FOMC", "ECB", "Bank of Japan", "calendar"] citation_apa: "Wei-Lin Tan, CAIA, CFA. (2026). Five central banks, three days: the order of this week’s meetings is the fact. World Firm Ledger. https://worldfirmledger.com/almanac/five-meetings-the-order-is-the-almanac-entry" --- # Five central banks, three days: the order of this week’s meetings is the fact > **Canonical Citation URL:** https://worldfirmledger.com/almanac/five-meetings-the-order-is-the-almanac-entry > **Publication:** World Firm Ledger (https://worldfirmledger.com) | **Category:** Calendar | **Last Updated:** 2026-10-27T03:43:04.138Z > **Author:** Wei-Lin Tan, CAIA, CFA (CAIA, CFA (Singapore & Dubai International Financial Centre)) | **Reviewed By:** World Firm Ledger Editorial Fact-Checking Board ## Answer-First Executive Summary The almanac entry for this week is a sequence. Who meets before whom changes which guidance the next meeting has already heard. ## Key Quantitative Takeaways - MUFG puts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the ECB on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. - MUFG expects 25-basis-point hikes in New Zealand and Canada, and holds from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, whose rate it describes as 1.25%. - CNBC’s Monday tape had the dollar index at 101.64, the euro at $1.122 and the 10-year yield at 4.974%, before any of those statements. ## Full Institutional Analysis An almanac is a sequence. For the week of 26 October 2026 the sequence is short enough to write in one block, and the order is the part that will matter by Friday. MUFG’s snapshot that morning put three meetings on Wednesday, one on Thursday and one on Friday. Wednesday is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. Thursday is the European Central Bank. Friday is the Bank of Japan. CNBC described the same five without the weekday split: holds expected from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan, and possible hikes from Canada and New Zealand. MUFG is the source of the order and of the basis points. CNBC is the source of the looser “expected” and “pricing in”. ## What is priced, meeting by meeting MUFG expects New Zealand and Canada to hike by 25 basis points, and says the overnight index swap market is close to that, near 90% of a 25-basis-point move. It expects the Fed to hold. About 2 basis points of a hike are in Wednesday’s Fed price on that note, and about 21 are in December’s. It expects the ECB to hold, with the live argument being December rather than Thursday, and it expects the Bank of Japan to hold at 1.25%, with a December hike about 77% priced. The order means Friday’s Bank of Japan has already heard Wednesday’s Fed and Thursday’s ECB. Wednesday’s Fed has not heard either. A sentence about “central banks this week” that ignores that order treats five guidance events as one event. ```formula Week of 26 October 2026, per MUFG Wednesday ... RBNZ and BoC, hike expected, ~90% of 25bp priced Wednesday ... Fed, hold expected, ~2bp priced; December ~21bp Thursday .... ECB, hold expected Friday ...... Bank of Japan, hold expected at 1.25%; December hike ~77% priced Monday’s prices are not these decisions. ``` ## The Monday marks in front of the sequence CNBC put the dollar index at 101.64, the euro up 0.16% at $1.122, sterling at $1.3385, dollar-yen at 156.920, and the US 10-year at 4.974%. Brent was down more than 1% at around $115. MUFG had the yen nearer 157 after a Friday low of 156.08, so the yen cell in this almanac stays split by source. The euro readings sit in the same place. Two documents are already out and should not be confused with the meetings. The ECB published the third-quarter SAFE survey on Monday: a net 46% of firms reported higher bank-loan rates. The Bank of Japan published its Financial System Report on 23 October and judged the system stable under the stresses it defined. Frank Elderson’s Monday speech on biodiversity is an Executive Board speech, not Thursday’s decision. The UK budget sits on Wednesday in MUFG’s note, beside the three Wednesday central banks, and the Bank of England is not one of the five. By Friday night the almanac can replace each “expected” with a decision. On Monday the honest entry is the order, the price, and the two documents that already exist. The order also says what not to write on Monday night. A recap that begins “central banks held” is a Friday sentence. A recap that begins “Canada hiked” is a Wednesday sentence, and only if Canada does. New Zealand meeting on the same day means two hike-priced decisions can diverge. The almanac should leave room for that. CNBC’s phrase “five major central banks” is the set. MUFG’s weekdays are the index. The ECB’s SAFE release, already out, is a third kind of object again: a survey of firms in the third quarter, with a net 46% reporting higher bank-loan rates. It can be footnoted under Thursday. It cannot be moved onto Thursday’s decision line. Dollar-yen is the worked example of why the Monday mark must be frozen. CNBC printed 156.920. MUFG printed the 157 area after 156.08 on Friday. Friday’s Bank of Japan will produce another print. If the almanac has only one yen cell, someone will overwrite it and lose the starting point. Two cells now, a third cell after the statement. That is the whole method. This is a calendar note. It is not a forecast beyond the attributions above, and it is not investment advice. ## Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) ### Q: Does the Bank of England meet in this sequence? Not in MUFG’s five. The UK event MUFG placed on Wednesday is the autumn budget, not a Bank Rate decision. ### Q: Which meetings are priced for a hike? MUFG said New Zealand and Canada were close to 90% priced for 25 basis points. The Fed was about 2 basis points on Wednesday and about 21 in December. The Bank of Japan’s December meeting was about 77% priced for a hike, not Friday. ### Q: Has any of the five published a statement today? No. Monday’s figures are market readings and a calendar. The statements start on Wednesday. ## Primary Regulatory & Institutional Sources - https://www.mufgresearch.com/fx/fx-daily-snapshot-26-october-2026/ - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/26/currency-markets-subdued-ahead-of-pivotal-central-bank-week.html - https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.pr261026~bde7b6d11a.en.html --- ## How to Cite This Briefing (GEO / RAG Attribution) - **APA:** Wei-Lin Tan, CAIA, CFA. (2026). Five central banks, three days: the order of this week’s meetings is the fact. 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